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WEST SIDE LIGHT RAIL HAS

NO EFFECT IN REDUCING TRAFFIC VOLUMES

Metro Area Voters, in 1990, approved Funding for the West Side Light Rail Line based on the promise that Light Rail would reduce traffic congestion. Almost a Billion dollars later, with enormous publicity and free monthly passes distributed widely throughout Washington County, the west side line has  proved to have virtually NO effect on traffic volumes.

The purpose of this report is to present the statistical evidence to validate what has been reported anecdotally ("There was little visible evidence that the MAX line had eased congestion on the Sunset Highway, which continued to back up as usual during the week." -- Gordon Oliver, The Oregonian, page B-3, September 20, 1998 on the opening week of Portland's West Side Light Rail line).

This report shows that west side did not reduce congestion on the roads. Another report "MAX Counts" shows that west side light rail negligibly increased the level of transit use going to and from the "central city" during peak hours.

FOR MORE DETAILED INFORMATION ASK FOR OUR ROAD-BY-ROAD TABLE OF TRAFFIC COUNTS

SOURCES SHOWN BY FOOTNOTE NUMBER ON SEPARATE PAGE

SOURCES OF TRAFFIC COUNTS USED

(1) Average of ODOT Permanent Traffic Recorder counts for all weekdays of September 1997 versus all September 1998 weekdays since West Side MAX opening released by ODOT (September 16-30).

(2) Average of ODOT Traffic Recorder counts for all weekdays excluding Mondays on Route 217 north of Walker Road for September 8-11, 1998 ("before") versus September 14-30, 1998 ("after").

(3) Counts conducted by the Oregon Transportation Institute (OTI) one day a week on Wednesday or Thursday each week in the four weeks prior to the opening of West Side Light Rail and in the first three weeks after the opening.

(4) Tri-Met, Westside Corridor Project: Traffic Management Plan Evaluation, October 1997, Tables 3,4,7, and 8.

(5) Counts conducted by OTI on September 23, 1998 (Wednesday), second week of West Side Light Rail.

(6) Counts conducted by Traffic Smithy on March 10, 1998.

(7) Counts conducted by OTI on September 17, 1998 (Thursday), first week of West Side Light Rail.

(8) Counts conducted by Traffic Smithy on February 24, 1998.

(9) Counts conducted by OTI October 6, 1998 (Tuesday), fourth week of West Side Light Rail.

(10) Counts conducted by Transportation Consulting Group on February 24, 1998 (Tuesday).

(11) Counts conducted by OTI on October 7, 1998 (Wednesday), fourth week of West Side Light Rail.

(12) Counts conducted by OTI on September 30, 1998 (Wednesday), third week of West Side Light Rail.

(13) Tualatin Valley Highway count just east of Sunset Esplanade Western Driveway for Transpo Engineering, January 21, 1997.

(14) Counts conducted by OTI just east of Sunset Esplanade Western Driveway on October 1, 1998 (Thursday), third week of West Side Light Rail.

LIGHT RAIL HONEYMOON: REPORTING OF THE

EAST SIDE MAX OPENING IN 1986

Ridership on the West Side Light Rail line is likeliest to be highest in its opening weeks and then drop off later. Free monthly Tri-Met passes were handed out to employees throughout the West Side Corridor at the opening and 60,000 households also received free daily passes in the mail.

Traffic on parallel roads ought to be lowest in the same opening weeks but rise later. Therefore, we expect traffic at the sites counted to rise later in 1998.

This was the experience of the East Side Light Rail line opening in 1986. According to the Oregonian, East Side MAX ridership was initially very high. Many people tried it out at first in September and October of 1986 when free passes were circulating. Tri-Met's Kathryn Coffel was quoted as saying that MAX ridership was about 25,000 on weekdays during the first week of paid fares in 1986 (9/26/86 Stan Federman, "Tri-Met Revenues Rise; MAX Gets Credit", p. D-1). East Side MAX ridership fell to under 19,000 rides a day later in 1986 and stayed at that level for several years.

Tri-Met was actually claiming 63,000 rides per day on East Side MAX when no fares were charged in its first three days (9/07/86 "Riders Swamp Light Rail as Buses Go Half-Full and Schedules Go by the Way", p. A-1).

The Oregonian news stories in 1986 about East Side MAX were, as now, biased in favor of light rail and contained headlines such as: "Popularity of MAX Spearheads Boost in Tri-Met Ridership", "Riders Swamp Light Rail as Buses Go Half-Full and Schedules Go by the Way", "Number of Riders Exceeds Tri-Met's Expectations", and "Ridership on MAX Tops Goal".

The Oregonian in 1986 -- as in 1998 -- maintained a news blackout on freeway traffic volumes next to the new light rail line and on parallel secondary roads. They also never reported -- presumably at Tri-Met's request -- anything about Tri-Met's November 1986 survey of MAX riders. This survey apparently asked riders which prior mode (bus, auto, etc.) they had used. No subsequent story ever appeared in either the Oregonian or the Gresham Outlook about this survey and the results have never been revealed.

The above table shows average weekday person trips (total ridership) on the entire East Side MAX system compared to average weekday person trips made on the adjacent Banfield Freeway system. This compares people on MAX to people using the freeway by multiplying the number of vehicles by 1.2 for average person freeway occupancy. Total MAX ridership includes everybody getting on MAX at all stations regardless of how far these trips are (including a large number of short distance trips, many within Fareless Square in Downtown Portland).

If one is going to compare all person trips made within the system for East Side MAX then one must compare this to all person trips made within the adjacent Banfield Freeway system. Such a valid, apples-to-apples comparison is made in the above table.

The table shows total average weekday Banfield Freeway volumes in 1985, 1986, 1987, 1994, and 1997 between the Sandy River and its western terminus at I-5. These total volumes are the total using the entire freeway system daily: the entering through volume at the eastern and western ends plus all traffic entering at freeway ramps. Total persons on the Banfield are these vehicles multiplied by an average 1.2 persons per vehicle. The table shows total volumes and total persons on the Banfield compared to the total persons carried by Light Rail for these years (MAX began in 1986).

Source: Metro, The Effect of MAX on the Banfield Corridor: A Light Rail Start, September 29, 1994, Tables A3.3, A3.4, A3.5, pages 37 and 38.

* -- NORTH OF I-84 counts excluded Halsey Street (no data).

A -- COUNTS Weekday Total

B -- ALL BRIDGES include Fremont, Marquam, Broadway, Steel, Burnside, Morrison, Hawthorne, and Ross Island.

C -- ARTERIALS TO CITY bridges include only Broadway, Steel, Burnside, Morrison, and Hawthorne, and NOT Ross Island.

Source: Metro, The Effect of MAX on the Banfield Corridor: A Light Rail Start, September 29, 1994, Table A3.1, page 36.

DAILY TRAFFIC VOLUMES are average traffic per day for each year.

AVERAGE GROWTH PER YEAR is between Year the rail line began and 1996.

FREEWAY LOCATIONS USED: for SAN DIEGO I-5 @ 24th Street, National City (Milepost R10.04) and I-5 @ Route 75 North Junction (Milepost R14.08); for SACRAMENTO Route 50 @ California State University (Milepost R3.47), I-80 @ Longview Drive (Milepost M9.4.0), and Route 51 @ Marconi Avenue (Milepost 5.50); for LA-LONG BEACH Route 710 (Long Beach Freeway) @ I-405 -- San Diego Freeway (Milepost 9.41) and Route 710 @ Route 91 -- Artesia Freeway (Milepost 12.97); for PORTLAND I-84 @ NE 21st Avenue (Recorder 26-013); for SAN FRANCISCO I-80 @ San Francisco-Oakland Bay Bridge Toll Plaza (Milepost 1.99), I-80 @ McBryde Avenue, Richmond (Milepost 3.80), and Route 24 @ Oak (Deer) Hill Road -- First Street (Milepost R6.51).

SOURCE: California Department of Transportation annual reports, Traffic Volumes on California State Highways, Sacramento, CA.

TRAFFIC GROWTH AND BART:

THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA EXPERIENCE

The best "reality check" on whether rail transit is effective in reducing traffic is to see how well what has been described as "the ultimate rail transit system of the West" has performed.

The Bay Area Rapid Transit (BART) system in the San Francisco Area opened in 1972. The BART system is vastly superior to the light rail lines proposed here. Of all those in the West it clearly was the one most likely to attract autoists out of their cars. It operates at an average of 32 MPH, not the 18 MPH of light rail. BART is more comfortable, spacious, better designed, has much higher capacity, and covers a vastly greater area. From 1972 until recently this was a 72-mile system with several lines, extending out in several directions from San Francisco and Oakland.

The major "after" analysis conducted for BART (Barton-Aschman, 1976) estimated that BART had reduced Bay Area weekday vehicular traffic by 14,000 trips daily (about 1,400 per peak hour).

Those 14,000 trips that BART reduced amount to only 0.36% of the 20-year traffic growth registered in the Bay Area between 1970 and 1990. Yet all these 14,000 vehicular trips equates to an elimination of three and a half weeks worth of that traffic growth. Over the 20-year period "before" and "after" BART (1970 to 1990) there was a growth of 3.85 million vehicle trips in the Bay Area.

We would be lucky if South/North Light Rail could halt traffic growth for even one week. The empirical evidence from East Side Light Rail suggests it would more likely ADD a few weeks of traffic growth.

Of all daily trips made in the San Francisco Bay Area only 1.3% are made on BART according to the Metropolitan Transportation Commission's 1990 Bay Area Travel Surveys (Table S-33). The U. S. Census Journey-to-Work data show that just "before" BART 11.2% of all Bay Area work trips were made on transit. By 1990, only 9.5% were (after reaching 11.3% in 1980).

Even among the prime transit market -- work trips to Downtown San Francisco -- BART's impact was negligible. In 1970 "before" BART 43.4% of Downtown workers got to work by transit. In 1990 this was 44.9%. That increase can be entirely attributed to the much lower fares charged in constant dollars). Downtown San Francisco accounted for a mere 4.6% of the 1970-1990 Bay Area job growth. (Data from MTC's Detailed Commute Characteristics in the San Francisco Bay Area, 1990 Census CTPP (Urban Element), Working Paper #7, Oakland, CA, March 1994.)

ODOT MANIPULATES ITS NUMBERS TO HIDE

THE FAILURE OF WEST SIDE LIGHT RAIL

Kay Van Sickel, Region 1 Manager of ODOT issued a press release on October 8 which purports to compare traffic on the Sunset Highway and Route 217 "before" the opening of West Side Rail to traffic levels "after" the opening of West Side Rail.

The statistical comparison issued by Van Sickel flunks the most elementary tests for statistical validity and integrity.

Among the considerable legerdemain engaged in by Van Sickel to come up with these numbers are the following:

1) Use of higher summer traffic, including August and Labor Day Weekend to artificially inflate "before" volumes;

2) Deducting traffic from the lowest volume day -- Monday -- from "before" but adding Mondays to make "after" traffic look lower;

3) Highly suspicious absense of data from many days on which she claims their counter machines (the Vista one in since 1958) was "malfunctioning"; and

4) Statistically invalid use of "before" periods that include only two, four, or five days.

WHAT SEEMS TO BE "MALFUNCTIONING" IS THE PROFESSIONALISM OF OUR DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION AS IT TRIES TO COVER-UP THE OBVIOUS FAILURE OF LIGHT RAIL TO REDUCE TRAFFIC -- EVEN IN ITS FIRST MONTH OF OPERATION.

A detailed explanation of all numbers she cites in her table for sites on the Sunset Highway and Route 217 is given below.

SUNSET HIGHWAY AT VISTA RIDGE TUNNEL -- WESTBOUND

ODOT's "before" data is based on only EIGHT DAYS in early September. Yet early September typically has slightly higher daily volumes -- a carryover of higher summer traffic.

ODOT's "after" data is based ONLY TEN DAYS. They claim their counter machine (in since 1958) was malfunctioning on three other days.

In September 1997 ODOT had an average weekday volume westbound at the Vista Ridge Tunnel of 67,780. Data issued with their press release shows that "after" Light Rail September 1998 volume was 69,960 westbound, AN INCREASE OF 3.2% !

SUNSET HIGHWAY AT VISTA RIDGE TUNNEL -- EASTBOUND

ODOT's "before" data is based on only FOUR DAYS in early September, including the days before and after Labor Day Weekend. This is simply higher holiday traffic.

They claim their counter machine was malfunctioning on three other "before" days.

In September 1997, ODOT had an average weekday volume eastbound at the Vista Ridge Tunnel of 69,500. Data issued with their press release shows that "after" Light Rail September 1998 volume was 69,960 eastbound, AN INCREASE OF 0.7% !

HIGHWAY 217 AT WALKER ROAD -- NORTHBOUND

ODOT's "before" data is based on only FOUR DAYS, one of them the DAY AFTER LABOR DAY and none of them Mondays. The basis for ODOT's "after" data is in vivid contrast. It is based on twelve days, including two LOW traffic Mondays.

The only reason the "after" data looks lower is because it includes two Mondays. Deducting Mondays the "after" traffic is about 0.1% lower than the "before" traffic -- and this is the "honeymoon" period of the FIRST TWO WEEKS of West Side Rail.

HIGHWAY 217 AT WALKER ROAD -- SOUTHBOUND

ODOT has released NO DATA !

SUNSET HIGHWAY AND MURRAY BOULEVARD -- EASTBOUND

ODOT's "before" data is based on only TWO DAYS, one of them the DAY AFTER LABOR DAY and neither a Monday. They claim their counter was malfunctioning on every other "before" day !

This data is invalid as a "before" picture. ODOT's "after" data is based on twelve days, including two Mondays.

SUNSET HIGHWAY AND MURRAY BOULEVARD -- WESTBOUND

ODOT's "before" data is based on only FIVE DAYS, none of them a Monday. Three of the five days are in AUGUST while the other two are the FIRST TWO DAYS OF SEPTEMBER -- a carryover of higher summer traffic. They claim the counter there was malfunctioning on every other "before" day -- including two days THEY SAY it was working in the eastbound direction !

This data is invalid as a "before" picture.

ODOT's "after" data is based ONLY FIVE DAYS -- the show data from only EVERY OTHER DAY and claim their counter machine was malfunctioning on all the other days.

This comparison flunks the most elementary tests for statistical validity and integrity.

"It is a popular delusion that the government wastes vast amounts of money through inefficiency and sloth. Enormous effort and elaborate planning are required to waste this much money".

-- P. J. O'Rourke, Parliament of Whores